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Deep research

  1. The cushion under the largest digital dollar halved in a profitable quarter — and the incoming US stablecoin law was never written to watch it

    Tether's two most recent attestations put the excess reserves behind USDT at $8.23 billion on 31 March and $4.11 billion on 30 June — a quarter in which the company reports a $1.5 billion operating profit and does not say where the difference went. The GENIUS Act reaches full force in January 2027 requiring dollar-for-dollar assets, monthly certified disclosure and no yield to holders; it requires no cushion at all. What actually stands behind a redemption at scale now runs through the same Treasury bills the Federal Reserve's September decision is about to reprice.

  2. The quarter the AI buildout stopped paying for itself — and the power grid named its price

    Between 22 and 30 July 2026 the companies carrying the AI buildout reported record revenues and, in the same documents, surrendered any claim to be funding it themselves: Alphabet raised $49.6 billion of equity and $20.3 billion of notes in a single quarter, Meta's free cash flow narrowed to $784 million, Amazon's trailing free cash flow swung to a $7.6 billion outflow, and Oracle closed its fiscal year $23.7 billion cash-negative against a $638 billion backlog. The constraint on the AI race has moved from chips to balance sheets and transmission lines — and the largest US power market has now failed twice running to buy enough firm capacity at any price.

Event research

Employment Situation

  1. One workforce, two ledgers: what Friday's jobs report can actually settle

    At 12:30 UTC on Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the August Employment Situation — the only labour evidence the Federal Reserve receives before its 16 September vote. For six months the report's two surveys have disagreed: the unemployment rate has fallen from 4.4 to 4.1 percent while payroll growth has averaged twenty thousand a month and turned negative in July. A shrinking workforce reconciles them. The number to take seriously on Friday is whichever one ends the disagreement.

Data research

US inflation & rates transmission

Inflation momentum from official BLS index levels next to how Treasury nominal and real yields price it. Every value is computed from stored official observations; missing history stays missing.

Weekly briefing

  1. Weekly Briefing №1: the barrel repriced the curve, and now the calendar gets its say

    In four sessions around a speech and an oil shock, the market settled how it intends to trade September: through the front of the US yield curve. The two-year moved nineteen basis points, gold gave back 4.7 percent, crypto fell in beta order, and the dollar firmed — all before a single piece of September data has printed. Between Friday's jobs report and the Bank of Japan's decision on the 18th, the calendar now supplies the evidence the move has been trading without.